Barclays AUD/USD 2016 forecast – 0.63

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Barclays sees AUD/USD as overvalued by 9% (!) at the moment. They are forecasting AUD/USD 0.63 rate at the end of 2016. Barclays rationale:

If commodity prices and the currency hold at current levels, this suggests that the real exchange rate will start next year 9% overvalued, which is well above a one-standard deviation divergence of 6.5%. With a collapse in real resource share prices pointing to a deeper slump in export prices, we estimate that fair value could fall a further 6% next year.


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